The future of American publishing under Donald Trump

What is the Future of American Publishing Under Donald Trump?

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Table of Contents

Introduction

Ask any publisher in America what keeps them up at night, and you might hear: “Amazon, AI, and maybe a little politics.” But the politics part gets louder when Donald Trump is involved. As a polarizing figure who has had an outsized influence on media and public discourse, a potential Trump presidency (again) raises a lot of questions for the publishing world. Will freedom of the press take a hit? Will conservative imprints gain even more market share? Will book bans intensify? Or will the publishing industry, defiant as ever, double down on resistance?

In a nation where the media is both a weapon and a shield, the future of American publishing under Donald Trump is more than a business question. It’s a cultural, constitutional, and economic one. Let’s break it down and explore where the battle lines are being drawn, how money and ideology intersect, and why publishing may be one of the most consequential industries affected by a Trump resurgence.

Publishing and Political Tides: A Brief Look Back

American publishing has always danced with politics. From Thomas Paine’s “Common Sense” to Barack Obama’s bestselling memoirs, books have been tools of revolution, persuasion, and historical record. But Trump-era politics brought something new: a hyper-personalized, antagonistic relationship between the White House and the written word.

During his first term (2016–2020), President Donald Trump frequently attacked major media organizations—labeling outlets like CNN, The New York Times, and The Washington Post as “fake news”—and regularly attempted to delegitimize critical journalism. He referred to the press as “the enemy of the people,” a phrase widely condemned by press freedom advocates and historians as dangerous rhetoric.

The result? A publishing boom. Anti-Trump books soared to the top of bestseller lists. Bob Woodward, Mary Trump, Michael Wolff, and even John Bolton made headlines—and money.

At the same time, conservative publishers like Regnery and imprint divisions at major houses saw an uptick in right-wing titles. Trump, in his own paradoxical way, invigorated the book market. Publishers on both sides of the ideological divide found a willing, politically charged readership hungry for affirmation, explanation, or retaliation.

Trump didn’t just polarize politics—he polarized reading. Readers chose books not just for information or entertainment, but for ideological alignment. Bookstores began curating politically themed shelves. Some readers stopped buying from certain publishers entirely, while others deliberately sought out titles that confirmed their worldview. The politicization of publishing reached a fever pitch, and that energy hasn’t dissipated.

There’s another layer to this polarization: the decline of the political center in mainstream publishing. Centrist commentary, moderate takes, and balanced reporting don’t go viral. The publishing industry is increasingly split between progressive calls to action and reactionary resistance. In a Trump-led future, middle-ground narratives may continue to shrink, even disappear entirely.

Trump and the First Amendment

Trump’s track record with the First Amendment isn’t exactly glowing. While he didn’t directly censor publishers, his rhetoric often encouraged a hostile environment toward journalists and dissenting voices. He also threatened to change libel laws, making it easier to sue authors and reporters.

Were these just political bluffs? Maybe. But the chilling effect was real. Journalists reported increased harassment. Publishers became wary of lawsuits. Libraries and schools became battlegrounds for ideological warfare.

A second Trump term could intensify these tensions. He has hinted at using federal power to “investigate” biased media and strengthen defamation laws. For publishers, especially those focused on investigative nonfiction or political critique, this could mean more legal risks and higher insurance premiums.

Additionally, there’s concern among legal scholars that Trump, emboldened by a potentially more favorable Supreme Court, might push the boundaries of what counts as protected speech. If publishers are seen as producing content that is critical of the state or public officials, they could face litigation or regulatory pressure. Freedom of expression will likely remain legally intact, but practically? The landscape could become much more intimidating.

In this environment, legal self-censorship becomes a real concern. Editors may shy away from high-risk titles. Publishing contracts may start to include more stringent indemnity clauses. Public discourse, the very lifeblood of democracy and publishing alike, risks becoming sanitized under the threat of litigation or political interference.

The Rise of Conservative Publishing

During and after Trump’s presidency, a wave of conservative titles flooded the market. Books by Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, and Trump himself found massive audiences. Publishing houses either created or expanded conservative imprints to meet demand.

Regnery Publishing, for instance, has long been the go-to for right-wing authors. But now major players like HarperCollins (via Broadside Books) and Simon & Schuster (which almost published Josh Hawley before backlash) are getting in on the game. If Trump returns to power, expect an even larger appetite for these books.

Publishing, like any business, follows the money. And in a politically charged climate, books aren’t just about content—they’re about tribal identity. Trump has turned political publishing into a culture war cash cow.

We may also see a consolidation of conservative publishing, with venture capitalists funding right-wing media conglomerates that include book imprints, news websites, podcast networks, and newsletters. The future might include vertically integrated conservative publishing ecosystems that bypass traditional liberal-leaning media entirely.

One outcome could be the increased marginalization of progressive and independent publishers in states with strong conservative majorities. Distribution channels, school curricula, and retail space may all be weaponized to promote one side of the ideological divide. The concept of “neutrality” in publishing might die a quiet death.

Academic Publishing Under Trump

While most political discussion about publishing centers on trade and commercial books, the academic publishing sector is not insulated from broader national trends. Under Trump, there is likely to be a renewed emphasis on “patriotic education,” echoing his calls for a 1776 Commission and efforts to counter what he views as “radical left indoctrination” in schools and universities.

This push could reshape the funding landscape for academic publishing. Journals, university presses, and research programs seen as too critical of U.S. history or too sympathetic to globalist or progressive causes may find themselves marginalized. Federal grants and educational support might increasingly be tied to ideological criteria, threatening the diversity of academic output.

Furthermore, international collaboration—especially in science and the humanities—could become more difficult. Trump’s America-first stance may discourage cross-border academic partnerships, and by extension, the co-publishing efforts that often accompany them. This has implications for open science, knowledge equity, and the global visibility of American research.

Global Perception and Soft Power

Publishing isn’t just domestic politics—it’s diplomacy. Books are one of America’s most potent tools of soft power. A second Trump presidency may affect how American literature, scholarship, and thought leadership are perceived abroad. During his first term, Trump’s rhetoric and policies alienated many traditional allies and strained diplomatic relationships. If the U.S. is again seen as isolationist or antagonistic, that sentiment may bleed into how American cultural exports, including books, are received.

Foreign publishers and rights buyers may grow wary of American titles, especially in academic and nonfiction categories. Meanwhile, authors critical of Trump may see greater international success, positioning themselves as alternative voices to official U.S. narratives. In effect, Trump’s domestic influence could internationalize opposition voices—and inadvertently globalize resistance literature.

The Threat to Public Institutions and Libraries

Public libraries, long considered sacred spaces for free thought and access to knowledge, are increasingly under attack in Republican-led states. Trump’s support for cultural conservative movements may further embolden efforts to defund libraries, ban books, and privatize public education. While the federal government doesn’t directly control local library budgets, a hostile political climate can legitimize local censorship efforts.

Moreover, federal support for the National Endowment for the Humanities (NEH) and the Institute of Museum and Library Services (IMLS) may be on the chopping block. These institutions provide crucial funding for publishing initiatives, literacy programs, and preservation of marginalized histories. Without them, the publishing landscape would tilt even more toward commercially viable, ideologically safe material.

The Future of Publishing Education and Training

Another often-overlooked area is how Trump-era policies may affect publishing education. University programs in publishing, media, journalism, and liberal arts have already seen decreased funding in red states. A Trump administration might encourage a continued shift toward STEM and away from the humanities, both rhetorically and through budget priorities.

This could lead to a talent drought in the publishing industry. If fewer students are trained in editing, book design, or literary criticism and if arts programs are stigmatized as elitist or un-American, the industry’s long-term skill base could shrink. Institutions like NYU, Emerson, and Columbia may continue to produce top-tier talent, but regional diversity in publishing education could suffer.

The Trump Economy and Publishing Supply Chains

One of the more practical yet under-discussed issues surrounding Trump’s potential return is how his economic agenda would affect the publishing supply chain. In his first term, Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, particularly those targeting Canadian imports, led to significant cost increases in the paper market, a critical concern for print publishers.

A revival of these protectionist trade policies could once again lead to surging costs for paper, ink, and overseas printing contracts. This hits small and mid-sized publishers the hardest. Many have shifted printing to China, India, or Mexico to save on costs. If tariffs expand or become more punitive, they’ll be forced to either raise book prices or cut back on titles altogether. The era of the $18 paperback might soon become a relic.

For publishers already navigating supply chain disruptions post-COVID, a volatile Trump economy adds another layer of uncertainty. Delivery times may slow down, inventory planning becomes a gamble, and the gap between large conglomerates and small presses will likely widen.

The Role of AI and Censorship Under Authoritarian Leadership

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is already reshaping the publishing industry, from copyediting to metadata generation. Under an authoritarian-leaning administration, there’s concern that AI tools might be co-opted not just to streamline workflows, but to surveil and censor. Imagine a scenario where state-aligned AI tools are deployed to scan manuscripts for “anti-American content” or “subversive ideologies.”

This may sound dystopian, but it’s not far-fetched. Trump has already supported controlling the school curriculum and banning inappropriate books. In a second term, AI could become an enforcement mechanism, allowing ideological screening at scale, particularly if the federal government develops incentives or penalties linked to content.

On the flip side, AI could also empower resistance. Independent authors and small presses might use generative AI to create quick-response texts and political manifestos. The fight between censorship and expression could become increasingly automated, playing out on a digital battlefield rather than in the editorial boardrooms of New York.

The Future of Independent Bookstores

Independent bookstores often serve as barometers of democratic health. They’re hyperlocal, community-driven, and politically engaged. During Trump’s presidency, many indies became outspoken hubs of resistance, stocking anti-Trump literature and hosting progressive events. They also struggled with economic instability, increasing rents, and Amazon’s dominance.

Another Trump presidency could place even more pressure on these bookstores. If local governments align with Trump’s educational agenda, booksellers may face regulatory restrictions, community backlash, or threats of defunding for hosting “inappropriate” content. As public funding dries up and private capital flows toward conservative media, the culture of indie bookselling could be forced into a defensive crouch.

Yet history shows these stores often thrive under pressure. Expect indies to double down on community activism, host more underground literary events, and embrace hybrid models like online storefronts and digital author talks. The indie bookstore may become less about profit and more about protest—a literary version of a safe house.

How Hollywood and Publishing Collide in the Trump Era

Book-to-screen adaptations are one of the most lucrative media intersections today. But the ideological divide in Hollywood could complicate these partnerships in a second Trump term. Progressive producers may shy away from conservative-authored books, while right-wing filmmakers and investors could fund their own alternative media empires.

This ideological divergence could lead to two parallel content ecosystems: liberal books becoming prestige TV on HBO and Netflix, while conservative texts find their way into docu-series on Rumble or subscription-based platforms like The Daily Wire+. Cultural fragmentation will bleed across formats, with audiences picking their narratives—and platforms—according to ideology.

Authors, too, will feel the pinch. A Trumpian climate might discourage moderate voices from engaging with contentious topics, knowing their books will be blacklisted by one side and dismissed by the other. Hollywood used to be the land of escapism. Under Trump, even escapism might need a political disclaimer.

Implications for International Rights Sales and Translation Publishing

Foreign rights sales are a lifeblood revenue stream for many U.S. publishers. But with Trump’s nationalistic posture and contentious diplomacy, international appetite for American books could wane. Foreign publishers may avoid licensing politically controversial U.S. content, fearing backlash in their home markets.

This poses a serious challenge for translation publishing. Many global imprints rely on American nonfiction to anchor their catalogues. But if U.S. content becomes too polarizing or perceived as propaganda, they may turn to U.K., Canadian, or even translated European texts instead. The U.S. could lose cultural market share, not because of quality, but because of political baggage.

Translation subsidies and cultural exchange programs, often backed by the State Department or independent U.S. cultural institutions, could also be cut. This would shrink the ecosystem for exporting American ideas through literature, one of the most subtle but powerful tools of diplomacy.

University Presses and State-Level Politics

University presses are often overlooked in mainstream publishing conversations, but they play a crucial role in shaping national intellectual life. During Trump’s presidency, and especially within red states, these institutions faced ideological and financial challenges. In many cases, state legislatures sought to cut funding for university systems that supported what they deemed to be “liberal indoctrination.”

These efforts may expand in a second Trump administration. University presses that publish works on critical race theory, climate change, gender studies, or immigration may be labeled subversive or politically biased. Even peer-reviewed scholarship could be criticized if it’s seen as misaligned with the federal administration’s messaging.

The result? Presses may feel compelled to sidestep controversial subjects. Editorial boards may face increased pressure to reflect state-approved values. Some presses might go silent, others underground. The vibrancy of university publishing could depend heavily on a state’s political leanings.

Book Fairs, Literary Awards, and the Culture War

Book fairs and literary festivals are vital gathering spaces for authors, publishers, and readers to celebrate new voices and exchange ideas. Under another Trump presidency, these spaces might become more overtly politicized. Conservative authors may boycott festivals they see as liberal-dominated, while progressive authors may refuse to attend events funded by conservative groups or state legislatures.

Literary awards—Pulitzers, National Book Awards, PEN prizes—could face increased scrutiny. Expect more debates about what counts as “American literature,” more calls to disqualify politically provocative works, and perhaps the emergence of entirely new awards funded by ideological donors on both sides.

Some states may create their own literary institutions to reward “patriotic storytelling” or “traditional values,” setting up a parallel universe of recognition that echoes efforts already seen in media, education, and law. If this sounds theatrical, it is. The culture war isn’t just televised; it’s now printed and bound.

What Will Be Written in 2030 About Trump and Publishing?

Fast-forward a few years. What kinds of books will be on our shelves in 2030, reflecting on Trump’s second presidency? Will it be investigative exposés? Memoirs of resistance? Studies in democratic erosion? Or perhaps a slew of triumphant histories from MAGA-aligned authors declaring cultural victory?

It’s safe to say both will exist. But what’s less certain is who will publish them, who will read them, and who will have access. The publishing ecosystem may become even more divided, with liberal and conservative narratives printed, sold, and consumed in different spheres, rarely crossing over.

Digital archives and oral history projects may become more important, especially if state-backed censorship intensifies. Future historians might rely more on podcasts, newsletters, and indie zines than mainstream bestsellers. The Trump era has already redefined what counts as a credible historical record. In a second term, that disruption could become the norm.

Conclusion

The future of American publishing under Donald Trump is uncertain, but it won’t be boring. It will be loud, chaotic, tribal, and increasingly digital. Legal threats will rise, book bans may spread, and ideological imprints will flourish. Traditional publishers may face pressure to either comply, resist, or retreat into safer, less political genres.

But the industry will adapt. It always does. From colonial pamphleteers to TikTok poets, American publishing has survived revolutions, recessions, and reality TV presidents. Trump may twist the narrative, but he won’t end the story. The only thing we can be sure of is that someone will write a book about it. Probably a dozen.

And rest assured: half the country will call it fake news, while the other half will call it Pulitzer-worthy. That’s the publishing industry in a Trumpian America—equal parts profit, peril, and political theater.

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