How China will dominate publishing

How China Will Dominate Publishing

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Table of Contents

Introduction

For centuries, publishing has been synonymous with the West. The great capitals of the book trade—London, New York, Paris, and Frankfurt—have dictated the circulation of knowledge, the rules of literary prestige, and the economics of intellectual property. But the twenty-first century is redrawing the map of global publishing. Slowly at first and now with rapid acceleration, China has emerged as the most powerful challenger to Western dominance. And unlike other markets that rise and fade, China is building a publishing ecosystem so vast, so integrated with state power and digital innovation, that it may eventually eclipse anything the West has built.

This is not a matter of speculation. The evidence is already clear. China’s book market is estimated at approximately USD 15–16 billion, and is currently the world’s biggest publishing market by volume. It trails the United States in terms of revenues per market share. The sheer size of its domestic audience, combined with an education system that churns out millions of new readers every year, means that demand is not going anywhere.

More importantly, China is expanding outward. It has turned publishing into an arm of its cultural diplomacy, a tool for exporting narratives, and a strategy for intellectual dominance. The shift is not happening in the margins but at the center of the global stage.

A Market Too Big to Ignore

One of the most overlooked facts about publishing is that markets with large populations and high literacy rates create their own gravitational pull. China, with its population of approximately 1.4 billion and a very high literacy rate (about 97% for adults, 100% for youth), likely has one of the largest absolute numbers of readers in the world. In 2024, around 575 million Chinese people (nearly half the population) engaged in online reading of literature. Educational publishing alone generates billions in revenue annually, thanks to a school system that prioritizes textbook distribution on a colossal scale. The result is a guaranteed customer base that dwarfs those in Europe or North America.

But the story is not just about volume. Unlike in the United States or the United Kingdom, where print sales often compete with ebooks, China’s market continues to expand in both formats. In 2004, China printed approximately 6.44 billion books, along with 25.77 billion newspapers and 2.69 billion magazines. Meanwhile, digital platforms saw exponential growth, with mobile reading apps drawing hundreds of millions of active users. This means Chinese publishers have the rare advantage of growth in two sectors simultaneously. They do not have to choose between physical and digital publishing, and that dual expansion strengthens their market dominance.

The domestic market is also highly diverse. While educational publishing dominates revenues, trade publishing has flourished in recent years. Novels, children’s books, lifestyle titles, and translated works from abroad now enjoy thriving sales. With rising disposable incomes among China’s middle class, book buying has shifted from a necessity to a cultural pastime. Bookstores in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou are packed not only with educational texts but with glossy fiction, global bestsellers, and local literary experiments. The publishing ecosystem is no longer utilitarian; it is cultural and aspirational.

Academic Publishing: The Real Power Play

If the domestic market fuels China’s publishing strength, academic publishing provides a long-term strategic advantage. In 2016, China surpassed the United States in scientific publication output—producing approximately 426,000 research articles versus the U.S.’s 409,000—making it the world’s leading producer by volume. This milestone continued into 2017 and was widely noted by academic observers.

By 2022, China accounted for approximately 27% of global science and engineering publications, according to National Science Foundation data.These were not just filler papers either. Chinese researchers began appearing as leaders in fields ranging from artificial intelligence to materials science to renewable energy.

The implications are staggering. Academic publishing is not just about prestige; it is about control of intellectual discourse. When China produces the majority of the world’s research in certain fields, it sets the agenda for what problems matter, which solutions are prioritized, and whose methodologies become dominant. Journals backed by Chinese institutions, such as those under Science Press, are gaining traction globally. At the same time, Chinese scholars are increasingly cited in international literature, breaking down the old hierarchy where Western institutions monopolized intellectual authority.

There are criticisms, of course. Western commentators sometimes accuse Chinese academia of over-prioritizing publication volume or inflating impact metrics. Yet quality indicators are improving. Chinese research is not just prolific, it is influential. Papers from Chinese institutions now frequently appear in top-tier journals, and collaborations between Chinese and Western universities are routine. The dominance of Chinese academic publishing is no longer a hypothetical. It is already underway.

Digital Transformation with Chinese Characteristics

Publishing’s future is digital, and China is ahead of the curve. What makes the Chinese digital publishing sector unique is its scale, creativity, and integration into everyday life. China Literature Limited, a Tencent-owned company operating major platforms like Qidian and QQ Reading, hosts nearly 10 million serialized novels—with many authors updating their works daily—and attracted approximately 200 million monthly readers as of 2017.

The broader Chinese online-literature industry had over 575 million domestic users in 2024. Entire literary genres have emerged from this ecosystem, such as xianxia (fantasy steeped in Taoist mythology), danmei (romantic fiction centered on male relationships), and web novels that often turn into television dramas, films, or video games.

The economics of these platforms are equally innovative. Authors can monetize directly through micro-payments, tipping systems, and fan support, bypassing traditional gatekeepers. In the West, self-publishing platforms like Amazon’s Kindle Direct Publishing exist, but none command the scale and cultural centrality of China’s digital publishing platforms. Mobile reading is fully integrated with payment systems like Alipay and WeChat Pay, turning reading into a fluid part of daily digital life.

Even academic publishing has found a digital rhythm in China. Databases like CNKI (China National Knowledge Infrastructure) serve as comprehensive repositories of scholarly articles, dissertations, and conference papers. For better or worse, CNKI dominates access to Chinese scholarship, and while the platform has faced criticism for high subscription costs, its sheer breadth makes it indispensable. The control of this digital infrastructure gives China another lever of influence: not only does it produce more academic content, but it also controls the primary pipeline through which that content circulates.

State Power and Cultural Diplomacy

Publishing in China is not simply a commercial venture. It is inseparable from state policy. The Chinese Communist Party treats publishing as an extension of cultural governance, with institutions like the China Publishing Group functioning as both state enterprises and cultural instruments. This is not subtle. Books are carefully curated to align with national values, and publishing houses often carry mandates that extend beyond sales.

But what might be seen as heavy-handed censorship domestically also functions as cultural diplomacy abroad. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China has launched extensive translation programs, funding the publication of Chinese literature, philosophy, and history in dozens of languages. At the same time, it facilitates the translation of foreign works into Mandarin, ensuring that Chinese readers have access to global literature but always within a curated framework.

This duality—domestic control paired with international outreach—positions publishing as a geopolitical tool. Where infrastructure projects like ports and highways establish China’s physical footprint, books establish its cultural one. Through state-backed initiatives, Chinese literature is increasingly present at global book fairs, in translation series, and in university syllabi around the world. The strategy is clear: if you want to shape how the world perceives you, start with the stories they read.

The Battle for Global Narratives

Publishing is never just about economics. It is about controlling the flow of narratives. For centuries, Western publishers dominated this terrain, exporting European and American worldviews through novels, textbooks, and journals. China is now rewriting that balance.

Science fiction provides a striking example. Liu Cixin’s Three-Body Problem trilogy, which won the Hugo Award and is being adapted by Netflix, has brought Chinese speculative fiction into the global mainstream. But Liu is not an outlier. A new generation of Chinese writers is gaining international traction, supported by translation projects and global fandoms cultivated through online communities. In the process, Chinese cultural narratives—from ancient mythologies to futuristic visions—are being disseminated worldwide.

Academic publishing tells a similar story. When Chinese scholars publish the majority of papers on climate change mitigation, artificial intelligence, or biomedical innovation, the global narrative around these issues shifts. What gets researched, how it is interpreted, and whose priorities matter all begin to reflect Chinese influence. Narratives, once filtered through the English-speaking West, are increasingly being generated in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen.

Challenges on the Road to Domination

None of this means China’s dominance is guaranteed. Significant challenges remain. Censorship continues to be a sticking point. Many global readers remain wary of works that appear too closely aligned with state ideology. This skepticism can undermine China’s attempts at cultural diplomacy, particularly in regions where freedom of expression is a core value.

Piracy is another issue. Despite strong growth in digital publishing, unauthorized copying and distribution remain rampant in China. This undermines profitability and discourages foreign publishers from deeper engagement with the Chinese market. Language barriers also pose difficulties. Mandarin is a rich literary language, but it is not globally dominant as English is. While translation programs are ambitious, they have yet to match the scale of English-language publishing in terms of universal accessibility.

There are also internal contradictions. On the one hand, China seeks to expand global influence through literature and academic publishing. On the other, tight state controls risk limiting the very creativity and critical inquiry that give publishing its vitality. Navigating this tension will determine how sustainable China’s rise really is.

Conclusion

The trajectory is unmistakable. China is not simply participating in the global publishing industry but is reshaping it. With its colossal domestic market, leadership in academic output, innovative digital platforms, and strategic use of publishing as cultural diplomacy, China has built the foundation for dominance. While challenges remain, they are unlikely to derail the overall trend.

Unlike Western dominance in earlier centuries, China’s rise will not replicate the same model. It will be publishing with Chinese characteristics: deeply entwined with state power, supported by digital ecosystems, and rooted in cultural traditions that are both ancient and adaptable. For the Western publishing establishment, the warning is clear. The balance of power has already begun to shift, and China is not just holding the pen but is writing the next chapter of global publishing.

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